See the first article in this series, Concerns About Trump Presidency Part 1: Important Intro.
Economics
It’s difficult to know if Trump will actually enact what he has suggested—high tariffs on all imports—but economists generally all agree this will lead to inflation. The goal of bringing more manufacturing back to the U.S. may be a good one. But in the best case, it won’t happen overnight. And even if it does, domestic manufacturing is more expensive, so therefore the products it produces will cost more. This is why so much manufacturing went to foreign countries to begin with and why Walmart’s prices are so low for example.
It’s really ironic—Walmart is like rural America’s store where those with low incomes can buy the cheapest products. Walmart has tried to portray itself as a store which support “made in America”, but the truth is that the vast majority of their products are made over seas. In fact, I heard at one point that if Walmart were a country, they would be China’s fifth largest trading partner. So the irony here is that a significant number of those who rely on Walmart and similar stores for their low prices support Trump whose policies are likely to make these goods significantly more expensive.
I know the hope is that bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. will lead to decent paying jobs for rural America. But all of the jobs which have been lost over the past 30 years will not come back. Labor is one of the highest costs in almost any business. Many manufacturers are likely to believe that automated technology will be less costly than labor.
From what I understand, the economy was sited as the largest factor in people’s vote, presumably in favor of Trump overall. As the video points out, the U.S. economy has actually fared quite well compared to the rest of the world. It seems like the democrats didn’t do a good job of highlighting this however; I certainly hadn’t heard this. So people voted based on “the economy”, but really because they disliked the inflation of recent years. I will say that I think the president is credited/blamed for the economy more than they actually have control over it. That said, the economy was reasonably strong during Trumps first presidency from what I recall. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, his stated policies, if enacted, are more likely to lead to higher inflation, at least in the short term.
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Immigration
This is clearly a controversial topic and one with significant challenges regardless of political persuasion. I understand that records of numbers of people arrived at the U.S.’ southern border in the past several years. I haven’t followed closely, but I can’t say I have the impression that Biden has handled this well. That said, I understand that he directed Kamala Harris to work on this, that she visited a number of Hispanic countries, and that the number of immigrants arriving at our southern border has notably declined since.
In any case, Trump’s rhetoric (can’t judge what he actually believes) seems very… inhospitable to the stranger and foreigner. From what I understand, conservatives blame immigrants for all kinds of bad things. They are vulnerable and as such make an easy scape goat. They’ve been blamed for the opioid crisis which is false; they’re blamed for taking jobs—they tend to work hard at jobs we don’t want to do; they’re blamed for stealing our government’s welfare such as healthcare. Many actually pay their taxes but in any case, I think it would be difficult to qualify for aid without legal status.
An additional problem is that it seems people often don’t differentiate between refugees (those who have come to America because of an imminent threat in their home country), immigrants who come to the U.S. seeking better opportunity with the hope of staying, those who come to the U.S. temporarily, those who have already been in the U.S., perhaps even having grown up here, but aren’t legal permanent residents despite their wishes due to the difficulty of obtaining legal status, and those of foreign ethnicity who are Americans.
It seems that Trump’s core supporters as a whole, even if they don’t explicitly say this, support favoritism for those who are already American citizens with white European ancestry. I am against this and am humanist at least in the desire to be for all people who aren’t harming others.
My study of immigration has revealed that immigration appears to be a net positive for the government and economy at least over the medium to long term. Besides this, there is the issue of the declining birth rate. Some if not many of you may be aware that the birth rate has fallen significantly across the developed world and is significantly below the replacement rate in most places, including in the U.S. The reason that this is a problem has to do with welfare for those who have retired as well as healthcare for the elderly. Governments are able to pay for these through taxes on the working population. However, better healthcare leading to longer lifespans along with the declining birth rate is affecting the balance toward more people expecting welfare and fewer paying for it. This means that either governments will have to reduce welfare or increase the tax burden on those who are working—neither of which is popular to say the least. I mean there were just major riots in France as a result of Macron’s attempt to push back the benefits age by just a couple of years.1 (I’ve also heard that Putin stays in power in part due to his keeping pensions high.)
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In September, a Scripps News/IPSOS poll found more than half of respondents supported the mass deportation of undocumented migrants.
https://www.newschannel5.com/politics/immigration/trump-confirms-plans-to-use-military-for-mass-deportation-of-undocumented-immigrants
Women
Regardless of one’s view on abortion (see my paper on the subject), conservatives’ restrictive legislation on abortion has had side effects specifically experienced by women. Some laws have exceptions when the mother’s life is endangered. The problem is, laws have been written by politicians, not doctors, and lack of clarity has resulted in doctors waiting for a women to get into a dangerous, even life threatening state before proceeding with necessary medical procedures. I have female friends who have personally this concern during pregnancy.
Trans-gendered Persons
Conservatives have also enacted or attempted numerous laws which target especially trans-gendered people. I wouldn’t say that there are no concerns to consider here. But by in large, I think this is another case of finding some people weird and wanting them to go away. I’d argue that it’s immoral to take a relatively vulnerable, small minority group and use them to incite fear to in order to gain support.
